Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Upgrades, Downgrades and Target Changes - Jan 31 2012


Company

Ticker

Rating/Target Change


Canadian
Imperial
Bank of Commerce

CM

cuts target to C$85 from C$86

Canaccord genuity

CanWel Building Materials

CWX

cuts to hold from buy

Canaccord genuity

Churchill Corp

CUQ

raised to Outperform from Market Perform  . The 12-month target price is $15.00
per share

Raymond James

Compton Petroleum

CMT

target reduced to 5.00 from 7.00

Scotia

Cogeco Cable

CCA

upgrade to sector outperform

Himalaya Jain

First Quantum Minerals Ltd

FM

cuts price target to C$31 from C$33

Nomura

Magna International

MG

cut to Neutral from Overweight

JP Morgan









Potash Corp.

POT

cut to Neutral from Buy . Sees “less compelling risk reward” on stalling potash
fundamentals.

Goldman

RuggedCom Inc

RCM

revises opinion to tender from outperform; raises price target to C$33 from C$28

National Bank

Samafo

SMF

targe reduced from 11.00 to 10.00

Scotia

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Monday, January 30, 2012

Upgrades, Downgrades and Target Changes - Jan 30 2012


Company

Ticker

Rating/Target Change


Agnoco-Eagle Mines

AEM

downgraded to Neutral from Buy. The 12-month target price is $44.00 per share

Dundee

AR Resources

ARX

Raised target from $27 to $28

National Bank

Canadian Natual Resource

CNQ

cut to Outperform from Top Pick

FirstEnergy Capital

Canadian Oil Sands

COS

cut to Underperform from Market Perform

FirstEnergy Capital

Capstone Mining Corp

CS

raises price target to C$6.60 from C$6.20

National Bank

Centerra Gold Inc

CG

cuts price target to C$32 from C$33

CIBC

CIBC

CM

cuts to C$85.00 from C$86.00

Canaccord genuity

CIBC

CM

raised to Buy from Neutral

Bank of American

European GoldField

EGU

cut to Neutral from Conviction Buy

Goldman Sucks

Exco Tech

XTC

raises price target to C$5.75 from

Canaccord genuity

First Quantum Minerals

FM

cuts price target to C$30 from C$31

CIBC

Guyanna GoldFields

GUY

raised to Speculative Buy from Hold

TD

Hana Mining Ltd

HMG

raises price target to C$3.15 from C$3.05

Salman Partners

HudBay Minerals Inc

HBM

cuts price target to C$20 from C$21.50

CIBC

Husky Energy

HSE

raised to Market Perform from Underperform

FirstEnergy









Imperial Metals Corp

III

raises price target to C$21 from C$18

CIBC

Lundin Mining Corp

LUN

cuts price target to C$7.50 from C$8

CIBC

Mercator Minerals Ltd

ML

to sector outperformer from sector performer

CIBC





Rio Alto Mining Ltd

RIO

raises price target to C$5.80 from C$5

CIBC

Teck Resources

RCK.b

cuts price target to C$65 from C$70

CIBC

Thompson Creek Metals

TCM

raises price target to C$14 from C$13

CIBC

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Friday, January 27, 2012

Upgrades, Downgrades and Target Changes - Jan 27 2012


Company

Ticker

Rating/Target Change


Bank of Nova Scotia

BNS

price target cut to C$57 from C$58

Canaccord Genuity

Boardwalk REIT

BEI.un

target raise from $50.00 to 52.50

Scotia

Canadian Pacific

CP

rating cut to hold from buy price target raised to C$89 from C$80

Canaccord Genuity

Canadian Pacific

CP

price target raised to C$70 from C$66

Barclays

CAP Reit

CAR.UN

Target raise to 22.25 from 20.75

Scotia

Capstone

CP

target price increased from $3.80to $4.00

Canaccord Genuity

Cogeco

CGO

raised to Buy from Hold

TD

CogeCo

CGO

target price reduced from $47.00 to $46.00

CIBC

CogeCo Cable Inc

CCA

Target price reduced from $53.00 to $54.0

CIBC

CN Rail

CNR

accumulating CNR in the $75-$76 range. targe 80.00

Scotia

Enbridge

ENB

raised to Sector Outperform from Sector Perform  The 18-month target price is $41.00 per share.

CIBC

Killam Properties

KMP

target raise from 11.50 to 12.00

Scotia

Metro Inc

MRU.a

outperform rating, target 59.00

National bank

Northern Prop REIT

NPR.un

targe increased from 32.50 to 32.75

Scotia

Petrobakken Energy

PBN

rating raised to buy from speculative buy

Canaccord Geniuty

Potash

POT

target cut to $58.00 from $60.00

Canaccord Genuity

Potash

POT

raised to Sector Perform from Underperform  The 12-month target price is
$46.00 per share.

National Bank








Richelieu

RCH

target raised to $33.00 from 32.00

National Bank

Richelieu

RCH

target raised from 31.00 to 32.50

Scotia

Tembec

TMB

target reduced from 4.75 to 4.50

Scotia

Toromont

TIH

targe increased from 20.50 to22.00

Scotia

Wild Stream Exploration

WSX

cut to Hold from Buy

Stifel Nicolaus


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Thursday, January 26, 2012

TSX Ex-Dividend Stocks Jan 30 - Feb 3, 2012

Details

Symbol

Yield

Latest Price
Ex-Div Date

Amount

Emera
EMA
4.1%
$32.8
1/30/2012
$0.34
Q
MTY Food
MTY
1.40%
$15.75

 
1/30/2012

$0.06

Q
United Corp
UNC
1.70%
$47.25
2/1/2012
$0.20
Q
Canadian Utilities
CU
2.90%
      $60.62
       2/3/2012
$0.44
Q








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Upgrades, Downgrades and Target Changes - Jan 26 2012


Company

Ticker

Rating/Target Change


AGF Management

AGF.B

cut to Underperform from Market Perform

BMO

Crescent Point Energy Corp

CPG

rating cut to hold from buy

Salman Partners

Great-West Lifeco

GWO

target price increased from $23.00 to $24.00


Industrial-Alliance

IAG

target price reduced from $37.00 to $31.00

Scotia

Manulife

MFC

Target price reduced from $16.00 to $15.50

Scotia

Manulife

MFC

cut to Neutral from Buy

UBS

Polaris Minerals

PLS

rating cut to hold from speculative buy; price target
raised to C$0.60 from C$0.55

Canaccord Genuity









Sunlife

SLF

cut to Neutral from Buy

UBS

Sunlife

SLF

Target price reduced from $30.00 to $25.00

Scotia

Thompson Rueters

TRI

cut to Sell from Neutral

Goldman


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Wednesday, January 25, 2012

SIR Royalty Income Fund - My Restaurant Stock Candidate

I had been an investor of Prime Restaurants Royalty Income Fund (EAT) since Apr 2010 until it was sold to Fairfax. It had a good run on price plus hefty dividends.
I would appreciate the timing of buying and Fairfax’s generosity.
Since EAT was gone, I am looking for the substitution of restaurant stocks. Similar like my selection for restaurant income funds, the first criterion is high dividend, 10% if possible.
Frankly, in most of the cases, it is not wise to buy a stock at 10% or higher dividend as that kind of dividend yield usually means dividend cut is in brewing. (Just like YLO suffered and I am still owning YLO).
SIR Royalty Income Fund came into my radar after searching.
SIR Royalty had a tough time from second half year of 2009, but it had been improved eventually.
Note: information abstracted from SIRCorp.com, GlobeAndMail, TheStars.com MorningStar.com, and my brokers' websites.

1. Fundamentals


Last Quater SSSG

Return on equity

Payout Ratio

Long term debt

Next margin

5.60%

13%

96.1%

0.00

67.6%


EPS

Dividend (Annual)

Dividend Yield

P/E

Book value

Price/Book Value

Price/Sales

$1.28

$0.996

9.9%

7.81 -10.06

9.52

1.06

6.87

2.Growth

One Jack Astor's bar to be added to the pool in year 2013. Another two to be open in year 2013. Considering there are only 45 restaurants in the fund’s pool, it is 2% expected growth in term of store number in year 2013.
As an important bench mark, SSSG fluctuated and is improving:

Period Ended Nov 21, 2010, SSSG +1.1%
Period Ended Feb 13, 2011, SSSG  -0.8%
Period Ended Mar 31, 2011, SSSG -0.68%  Payout Ratio: 119.2%
Period Ended Jun 30,  2011, SSSG +3.30%  Payout Ratio:  94.8%  
Period Ended Aug 28, 2011, SSSG +3.10%        
Period Ended Sep 30,  2011, SSSG +3.2% Payout Ratio:  96.1%  
Period Ended Nov 20, 2011, SSSG +5.6%. Revenue growth 9.8%

In the latest three quarters(ended Mar 31,2011, Jun 30, and Sep 30), the fund earned
$1.3M, $1.4M, and $1.4M respectively.

Cash increased to 6.0M from 5.5M by Nov 20, 2011. Payout ratio was around 95% level. And with the strong SSSG reported, I assume, payout ratio would be lower going forward.

In summary, my understanding is the situation was improving in the past year and the trend continues.











3. Analyst's Coverage
I could not find any analyst's report or coverage on the internet for SIR Fund.
Shareholders' wise, there is only on institution and mutual fund share holder. They are under the same name: Norrep.

Reported on Dec 31, 2011, Norrep funds hold 273,200 shares, about 5.1% of outstanding shares, the holding was increased a little bit by 58,000 shares since last annual report. It counts 3.66% of Norrep Income Growth Class-F Fund.

4. My Entry Point
SIR Fund’s price hit the bottom on Jul 26, 2011 at $7.68; it is in the uptrend tunnel since
With 10% dividend and sound payout ratio, I think it has the flexibility for holding and trading at the current price level $10.00.
I am reluctant to buy it right now since the price has been risen 5.6% and the index risen 4.2% this year as of today Jan 25.
I would buy at a pull back, ideally, at the range of $9.50 - $9.60.
(I may need to consider the macro economy for restaurant stocks, if I find something I will update this blog).

5. Company Information
Company website:  http://www.sircorp.com
SIR Royalty Income Fund (the Fund) is a trust. The trademarks related to the SIR Corp. (SIR) concept restaurant brands, including Jack Astor's Bar and Grill, Alice Fazooli's! and Canyon Creek Chop House, and SIR's signature restaurant brands, including reds, Far Niente/Soul of the Vine, Petit Four, and the Loose Moose Tap & Grill, is used by SIR under a license agreement with SIR Royalty Limited Partnership (the Partnership) in consideration for a Royalty, payable by SIR to the Partnership.
SIR operates 45 Concept Restaurants and Signature Restaurants in Canada (in Ontario, Quebec, Alberta and Nova Scotia). The Concept Restaurants are Jack Astor's Bar and Grill, Canyon Creek Chop House and Alice Fazooli's. The Signature Restaurants are reds, Far Niente/Petit Four and FOUR, and the Loose Moose Tap & Grill. During the year ended December 31, 2009, SIR acquired the non-controlling interest in Jack Astor's Don Mills Limited.

Need more info about SIR Loyalty Fund?
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Upgrades, Downgrades and Target Changes - Jan 25 2012


Company

Ticker

Rating/Target Change


Bell Aliant Inc

BA

coverage started with sector perform

National

Gennum Corp

GND

price target raised to C$13.55 from C$7.50

CIBC














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Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Upgrades, Downgrades and Target Changes - Jan 24 2012


Company

Ticker

Rating/Target Change


Barrick Gold Corp

ABX

rating cut to sector perform from outperform

RBC

Belo Sun Mining Corp

BSX

price target raised to C$3 from C$2.60

CIBC

Lake Shore Gold Corp

LSG

rating raised to sector performer from sector underperformer

CIBC

TransAlta Corp

TA

target price cut to C$25 from C$27

Canaccord










Research In Motion

RIM

upgraded from a "sell" rating to a "hold" rating. have a $18.00 price target.

Deutsche Bank

Research In Motion

RIM

downgraded from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating.

ThinkEquity
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Monday, January 23, 2012

Upgrades, Downgrades and Target Changes - Jan 23 2012


Company

Ticker

Rating/Target Change


Biox Copr

BX

rating raised to outperform from sector perform

National Bank

Exchange Income

EIF

price target raised to C$30 from C$28

National Bank

MAG Silver Corp

MAG

price target raised to C$16 from C$14

Canaccord

Royal Bank

RY

price target raised to C$59 from C$58

Canaccord

Canadian Pacific Railway Limited

CP

had its “market perform” rating re-affirmed. have a $75.00 price target

BMO




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Saturday, January 21, 2012

Upgrades, Downgrades and Target Changes - Jan 20 2012


Company

Ticker

Rating/Target Change


ATS Automation Tooling Systems INc

ATA

Rating change from Sector perform to Secor Outperform

Scotia Capital

Bonavista Energy Corp

BNP

target cut to C$29 from C$30

Canaccord

Centerra Gold Inc

CG

cut to C$24 from C$25

Canaccord

Cominar REIT

CUF.UN

Target raised to $25

Scotia

Cogeco Cable Inc

CCA

increased to $54 from $53

Scotia

Delphi Energy Corp

DEE

raised to buy from hold; price target raised to C$3 from C$2.25

Canaccord

IBG Group

IBG

Rating Change from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform

Scotia Capital

Nuvista Energy Ltd

NVA

price target raised to C$6.75 from C$6.25

Canaccord

North American Palladium

PAL.A

Rating Change from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform

Scotia Capital

Rating Change from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform

PDL

Rating Change from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform

Scotia Capital

Paramount Resource Ltd

POU

price target cut to C$44 from C$48

Canaccord





Petrobakken Energy

PBN

price target raised to C$18 from C$16

Barclays


PBN

price target raised to C$21 from C$18

Canaccord

Viterra Inc

VT

Rating Change from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform

ScotiaBank
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Thursday, January 19, 2012

TSX Ex-Dividend Stocks Jan 23 - 27, 2012

Details

Symbol

Yield

Latest Price

52wk range
Ex-Div Date

Amount
AltaGas Ltd
ATA
4.6%
29.76
32.67-21.25
1/23/2012
$0.12
Q
Pembina Pipeline
PPL
5.70%
27.36
31.15-20.64
1/23/2012
$0.13 
M
Provident Energy
PVE
4.70%
11.52
11.61-6.84
1/23/2012
$0.045
M
Coast Wholesale Appliance
CWA
10.60%
3.9
5.25-2.12
1/24/2012
$0.035
M
Royal Bank
RY
4.10%
53.10
61.53-43.3
1/24/2012
$0.54
Q
Sprott Resource Lending
SIL
4.00%
1.57
1.9-1.24
1/25/2012
$0.015
Q
SCITI Trust
SIN.UN
8.00%
13.27
14.35-10.95
1/25/2012
$0.08
M





Canadian Tire
CTC.A
1.9%
63.66
67.15-51.8
1/27/2012
$0.30
Q
Contrans Group
CSS
4.70%
8.50
10.40-5.92
1/27/2012
$0.10
Q
Pure Energy Services
PSV
4.2%
8.54
9.10-5.13
1/27/2012
$0.09
Q


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